Erdogan’s Fate Hangs on Markets and Migrants

Election billboards for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Istanbul on April 30.

Photographer: Kerem Uzel/Bloomberg

Wrong-footed by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s stronger-than-expected showing in the first round of Turkey’s elections, investors are bracing for the likelihood that his unconventional economic policies are here to stay.

Erdogan took 49.5% of the vote in the May 14 ballot, just shy of the 50% required to secure an outright extension to his 20-year rule.