Central Banks

El-Erian Sees Fed Delivering One Interest-Rate Cut in 2025

Mohamed El-Erian, Queens’ College Cambridge president and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says he worries “about the soft data becoming market reality, becoming hard data reality,” as he examines how markets are anticipating the impact of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. His opinions are his own.Source: Bloomberg

Mohamed El-Erian expects the Federal Reserve to deliver just one interest-rate cut this year, in contrast to what the market and the central bank are projecting.

Markets are fully pricing in at least two rate reductions in 2025 — plus a high likelihood of a third. In all, they see about 70 basis points of easing this year, with the first quarter-point cut in July. Meanwhile, the central bank’s latest dot plot calls for only twoBloomberg Terminal cuts.