Economics
U.S. Shutdown Pain Yet to Infect Economic-Growth Forecasts
- Outlooks are at odds with some more-dire recent predictions
- Less than half say closure boosts probability of a recession
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For all the hand-wringing and headlines over the fallout of the U.S. government shutdown, most forecasters still don’t expect it to cause too much pain to the economy so long as it doesn’t endure.
Analysts project the government will reopen by mid-February, though if the closure lasts through March, the disruption will cause economic growth to dip below 2 percent this quarter, according to the median forecast in a Jan. 15-17 Bloomberg survey. At the same time, just under half say the government impasse increases the probability of a recession this year.