Turkey's Moment

There is more than one way to witness Turkey's economic metamorphosis. You can see it, easily enough, in Istanbul's wealthy center, where Ferraris cruise the sea road, neighborhoods gentrify at astonishing rates, housing prices are soaring, and tourists pack the streets. Or you can head to the pleasant residential neighborhood of Sütlüce, where middle-class families play in lush parks along the waters of the Golden Horn, traffic hums through newly constructed tunnels, and silver apartment buildings glint in the sun. Sütlüce is a few miles from where Turkey's Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, grew up and is home to the grand Istanbul headquarters of the ruling Justice and Development Party. The formerly rough-and-tumble neighborhood's transformation mirrors that of its favorite son, a poor, tough, soccer-playing kid who has become one of the most powerful leaders in Turkish history. Though many of Erdoğan's constituents may have once supported him because of his devotion to conservative Islam, they're now more enamored of all those inviting parks and smooth roads. Erdoğan's Turkey is booming.

On June 12, the Turkish Prime Minister won a third term in office with 50 percent of the vote—a historic win for a formerly Islamist political party in a secular Muslim country. In declaring his victory from a balcony at the party's Ankara headquarters, Erdoğan said: "Today, freedom, peace, justice, and stability, as much as democracy, have won." Turks disenchanted with Erdoğan's heavy-handed style would disagree; some fear that he has acquired too much power and that democratic reform languished during his last term. As Turkey's economic clout has grown, so has its confidence on the world stage, which has caused friction with the West. Even as it pursues membership in the EU, Ankara has developed closer ties with regimes in Iran and Syria. The opening to Damascus, in particular, now threatens to backfire on Erdoğan, as the Syrian regime's crackdown against the opposition has sent thousands of refugees fleeing to Turkey's borders.